Web Watch
Figures converted from KZT at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.
Web Watch in One Page
The report frames Kaspi.kz as a 51% ROE franchise sitting at 7x P/E because of two binaries (Krivenok litigation, Rabobank A.Ş. Türkiye banking licence) and one slow-moving moat assumption (Kazakhstan does not mandate PIX-style open-loop QR). Everything else in the next 12 months is data, not decision. The five live monitors below track exactly those binaries plus the two governance signals that could change the underwriting without an earnings print: founder/insider transactions and Halyk Bank deposit-share moves. They are sequenced so the most binary, most under-priced overhangs sit at the top — a clean motion-to-dismiss in Krivenok or a BDDK approval letter could move the multiple before the next 10-Q.
Active Monitors
| Rank | Watch item | Cadence | Why it matters | What would be detected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krivenok class action — docket and motion-to-dismiss ruling | Daily | Only binary multiple-cap event in the file; a ruling would move KSPI before any operating data | MTD ruling (grant, partial, deny), settlement notice, amended complaint, discovery or class-certification filing, any new shareholder class action |
| 2 | Rabobank A.Ş. BDDK banking-licence approval (Türkiye) | Daily | Driver 2 of the long-term thesis; converts Hepsiburada from a marketplace P&L into a deposit-funded super-app in an 85M-population market | BDDK approval, conditional approval, RFI, rejection, or delay; closing mechanics, Rabobank capitalisation, first Turkish banking product launch |
| 3 | Kazakhstan payments-rail regulation (NBK / ARDFM / MoF) | Weekly | The wide-moat case depends on NBK not mandating PIX-style open-loop QR; failure modes #1 and #6 (BNPL cap, reserve hike) both live here | Consultation paper or final rule on QR interoperability, acquirer/interchange caps, BNPL fee caps, consumer-loan reserve rules, eGov-services unbundling |
| 4 | Founder and insider transactions (Lomtadze, Kim, board) | Daily | 70+ insider filings since IPO with zero open-market buys is a multiple-capping signal; acceleration or its reversal updates Driver 5 | New Form 4 / 144 / 13D-G filings by founders, executives, directors, or 5%+ holders; first open-market buys; share pledges or margin loans |
| 5 | Halyk Bank, Halo, and Kazakh competitor moves on deposits and habit | Weekly | Failure mode #5: Halyk taking deposit share or Halo overtaking Kaspi.kz in any quarter collapses the funding-cost advantage that turns 6% Cost of Risk into 50% ROE | Halyk semi-annual deposit/loan disclosures, Halo MAU milestones, Home Credit / Wildberries / Ozon Kazakhstan launches, app-store ranking shifts |
Why These Five
The verdict is "Lean Long, Wait For Confirmation" and the report names a small, observable set of signals that force a re-underwrite. Two of the five monitors (Krivenok, Rabobank) cover the only items in the catalysts matrix that genuinely update the long-term thesis rather than calibrate near-term slope. The Kazakhstan payments-rail monitor covers the single most fragile assumption inside the wide-moat conclusion — NBK has not opened a consultation in 24 months of speculation, and any movement here would be the only signal capable of converting the bear's "PAGS-style derate" frame from theory into a priced event. The insider monitor closes the loop on the bear point that 70+ one-way filings and an FY25 dividend skip are the price of holding the litigation tail; the first insider open-market buy in 18 months would be a meaningful counter-signal, while a Lomtadze sale of scale would activate the founder-departure failure mode the moat tab cannot otherwise detect early. The Halyk/Halo monitor catches the slow-moving failure mode the report calls "digestible if caught early, existential if missed" — KZ deposit share is the load-bearing pillar of the moat and Halyk's H1 disclosures are the cleanest external read on whether it is drifting.
Set against the bull's confirmation triggers (op margin above 58%, Krivenok clarification, Rabobank closing) and the bear's downside triggers (op margin at or below 52%, MTD denial, Rabobank delay past 2027, Halyk deposit-share gain), the five monitors above are the asymmetric ones: each could move the underwriting before the next quarterly print, and three are binary on a single document.